Generally speaking, quizzes SHOULD predict test scores if they are in proper alignment. However, in our mastery classrooms, students have a lot more control over their quiz scores. First, they are self-graded. There are not a lot of opportunities to be dishonest the way the classroom is setup, but I am continually impressed at how accurately most students self-check their work. Second, students can take unlimited retakes. This means that they can nearly guarantee a score of 4/4 (meaning no mistakes) if they are willing to keep working and seek help to make improvements between quizzes.
5th grade: multiple choice mastery quizzes (by standard) predict MCA (state NCLB assessment) test scores, r=0.91. Reaching 60% proficient in the Mastery Connect quizzes that we created nearly guaranteed MCA proficiency with only a few exceptions in the 60-70% range. Every student below 55% on the Mastery Connect quizzes was not proficient on the MCA. This means that there is no longer guesswork needed for interventions -- students can be reliably identified by January as unlikely to pass the state assessment and can receive necessary remediation.
Geometry: quiz totals by unit (mastery) predict test scores. Over 4 units, correlation ranges from r=0.66 to r=0.81, with most on the higher end (see graphs below). When talking about proficiency, I made the cut-line of an average quiz score of half 3's and half 4's (3.5 average). See the table immediately below for number of students who were proficient on the test (above 80%) when they were above or below the cut-line. In the earlier units, this did not prove to be as predictive or critical. By the last unit, the quiz scores essentially told you if you would be proficient or not.
|Below 3.5 quiz avg||Above 3.5 quiz avg|